How to train a RNN with LSTM cells for time series prediction
I'm currently trying to build a simple model for predicting time series. The goal would be to train the model with a sequence so that the model is able to predict future values.
I'm using tensorflow and lstm cells to do so. The model is trained with truncated backpropagation through time. My question is how to structure the data for training.
For example let's assume we want to learn the given sequence:
[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,...]
And we unroll the network for num_steps=4.
Option 1
input data label
1,2,3,4 2,3,4,5
5,6,7,8 6,7,8,9
9,10,11,12 10,11,12,13
...
Option 2
input data label
1,2,3,4 2,3,4,5
2,3,4,5 3,4,5,6
3,4,5,6 4,5,6,7
...
Option 3
input data label
1,2,3,4 5
2,3,4,5 6
3,4,5,6 7
...
Option 4
input data label
1,2,3,4 5
5,6,7,8 9
9,10,11,12 13
...
Any help would be appreciated.
Answer
I'm just about to learn LSTMs in TensorFlow and try to implement an example which (luckily) tries to predict some time-series / number-series genereated by a simple math-fuction.
But I'm using a different way to structure the data for training, motivated by Unsupervised Learning of Video Representations using LSTMs:
Option 5:
input data label
1,2,3,4 5,6,7,8
2,3,4,5 6,7,8,9
3,4,5,6 7,8,9,10
...
Beside this paper, I (tried) to take inspiration by the given TensorFlow RNN examples. My current complete solution looks like this:
import math
import random
import numpy as np
import tensorflow as tf
LSTM_SIZE = 64
LSTM_LAYERS = 2
BATCH_SIZE = 16
NUM_T_STEPS = 4
MAX_STEPS = 1000
LAMBDA_REG = 5e-4
def ground_truth_func(i, j, t):
return i * math.pow(t, 2) + j
def get_batch(batch_size):
seq = np.zeros([batch_size, NUM_T_STEPS, 1], dtype=np.float32)
tgt = np.zeros([batch_size, NUM_T_STEPS], dtype=np.float32)
for b in xrange(batch_size):
i = float(random.randint(-25, 25))
j = float(random.randint(-100, 100))
for t in xrange(NUM_T_STEPS):
value = ground_truth_func(i, j, t)
seq[b, t, 0] = value
for t in xrange(NUM_T_STEPS):
tgt[b, t] = ground_truth_func(i, j, t + NUM_T_STEPS)
return seq, tgt
# Placeholder for the inputs in a given iteration
sequence = tf.placeholder(tf.float32, [BATCH_SIZE, NUM_T_STEPS, 1])
target = tf.placeholder(tf.float32, [BATCH_SIZE, NUM_T_STEPS])
fc1_weight = tf.get_variable('w1', [LSTM_SIZE, 1], initializer=tf.random_normal_initializer(mean=0.0, stddev=1.0))
fc1_bias = tf.get_variable('b1', [1], initializer=tf.constant_initializer(0.1))
# ENCODER
with tf.variable_scope('ENC_LSTM'):
lstm = tf.nn.rnn_cell.LSTMCell(LSTM_SIZE)
multi_lstm = tf.nn.rnn_cell.MultiRNNCell([lstm] * LSTM_LAYERS)
initial_state = multi_lstm.zero_state(BATCH_SIZE, tf.float32)
state = initial_state
for t_step in xrange(NUM_T_STEPS):
if t_step > 0:
tf.get_variable_scope().reuse_variables()
# state value is updated after processing each batch of sequences
output, state = multi_lstm(sequence[:, t_step, :], state)
learned_representation = state
# DECODER
with tf.variable_scope('DEC_LSTM'):
lstm = tf.nn.rnn_cell.LSTMCell(LSTM_SIZE)
multi_lstm = tf.nn.rnn_cell.MultiRNNCell([lstm] * LSTM_LAYERS)
state = learned_representation
logits_stacked = None
loss = 0.0
for t_step in xrange(NUM_T_STEPS):
if t_step > 0:
tf.get_variable_scope().reuse_variables()
# state value is updated after processing each batch of sequences
output, state = multi_lstm(sequence[:, t_step, :], state)
# output can be used to make next number prediction
logits = tf.matmul(output, fc1_weight) + fc1_bias
if logits_stacked is None:
logits_stacked = logits
else:
logits_stacked = tf.concat(1, [logits_stacked, logits])
loss += tf.reduce_sum(tf.square(logits - target[:, t_step])) / BATCH_SIZE
reg_loss = loss + LAMBDA_REG * (tf.nn.l2_loss(fc1_weight) + tf.nn.l2_loss(fc1_bias))
train = tf.train.AdamOptimizer().minimize(reg_loss)
with tf.Session() as sess:
sess.run(tf.initialize_all_variables())
total_loss = 0.0
for step in xrange(MAX_STEPS):
seq_batch, target_batch = get_batch(BATCH_SIZE)
feed = {sequence: seq_batch, target: target_batch}
_, current_loss = sess.run([train, reg_loss], feed)
if step % 10 == 0:
print("@{}: {}".format(step, current_loss))
total_loss += current_loss
print('Total loss:', total_loss)
print('### SIMPLE EVAL: ###')
seq_batch, target_batch = get_batch(BATCH_SIZE)
feed = {sequence: seq_batch, target: target_batch}
prediction = sess.run([logits_stacked], feed)
for b in xrange(BATCH_SIZE):
print("{} -> {})".format(str(seq_batch[b, :, 0]), target_batch[b, :]))
print(" `-> Prediction: {}".format(prediction[0][b]))
Sample output of this looks like this:
### SIMPLE EVAL: ###
# [input seq] -> [target prediction]
# `-> Prediction: [model prediction]
[ 33. 53. 113. 213.] -> [ 353. 533. 753. 1013.])
`-> Prediction: [ 19.74548721 28.3149128 33.11489105 35.06603241]
[ -17. -32. -77. -152.] -> [-257. -392. -557. -752.])
`-> Prediction: [-16.38951683 -24.3657589 -29.49801064 -31.58583832]
[ -7. -4. 5. 20.] -> [ 41. 68. 101. 140.])
`-> Prediction: [ 14.14126873 22.74848557 31.29668617 36.73633194]
...
The model is a LSTM-autoencoder having 2 layers each.
Unfortunately, as you can see in the results, this model does not learn the sequence properly. I might be the case that I'm just doing a bad mistake somewhere, or that 1000-10000 training steps is just way to few for a LSTM. As I said, I'm also just starting to understand/use LSTMs properly. But hopefully this can give you some inspiration regarding the implementation.